Conwoy logo

Consequences of weather and climate changes for
marine and freshwater ecosystems - Conceptual and operational
forecasting of the aquatic environment

Project description

[Background] [Objectives] [Workpackages]
[Funding] [Project Management]

Background

Changes in the environmental status of fresh and marine waters have been observed in Denmark and elsewhere during recent decades and considerable research effort has been directed towards a clarification of the impact of human activities such as eutrophication and exploitation on these aquatic ecosystems. Intuitively, it is recognised that weather/climate also impact on both the productivity and the state of aquatic ecosystems and that any anthropogenic influence on these systems is occurring against a background of climate mediated fluctuation. Despite this recognition, however, little effort has been directed to quantifying and predicting the effects of climate variability on the productivity and environmental state of aquatic ecosystems.

Such predictive capability becomes particularly relevant in light of the expectation of significant climate change in the future. There is still some uncertainty with respect to the magnitude and direction of this expected change given our incomplete understanding of the factors forcing global circulation patterns. Climatic conditions at the regional level vary on annual to centennial scales. Observations indicate that significant changes in the global and regional climate over the last century have occurred. At the same time projections based on climate models suggest even larger changes to occur over the next century. The anticipated climate changes for Denmark are for generally warmer and wetter conditions, with some expected increase in the frequency of storms and heavy precipitation events.

We anticipate that the regional climate changes will lead to changes in:

  • transport of matter from land to sea
  • turnover of nutrients and organic matter
  • water column stability in lakes, fjords and marine areas
  • trophic structure and dynamics of these systems

These changes will, in turn, influence the potential for recreational and economic exploitation of aquatic ecosystems by human societies.

Thus, through a cross-disciplinary research effort CONWOY focuses on developing a fundamental scientific understanding of the interactions between weather/climate and the biogeochemical and biological processes that define the state of aquatic environments found in and around Denmark.

Top of page

Objectives

Through a cross-disciplinary research effort CONWOY focuses on developing a fundamental scientific understanding of the interactions between weather/climate and the biogeochemical, biological and physical processes that define the state of aquatic environments found in and around Denmark. A part of the proposed research is to incorporate fundamental knowledge into models that can be used to predict the impact of future climate change on Danish aquatic environments.

The vision is to better understand and to quantify the influence of climate on the state of marine and freshwater ecosystems and to be able to produce a "water forecast", explicitly the primary aim of CONWOY is to become able to predict effects on the water quality and ecological state of different regional water bodies on a decadal to century scale. This is motivated by regional climate change simulations, which indicate significant changes toward the end of this century. Thus, the objectives of the project are to:

  • develop a conceptual understanding on how the present and future climate will interact with fundamental ecological processes in aquatic systems ranging from rivers, over lakes to coastal areas and more open seas
  • translate and develop the conceptual understanding to an operational modelling capacity with the perspective to quantify the impacts over both short (decades) and long (century) time scales

Some of the main activities in the CONWOY program are listed below:

  • Analyze available historical data for possible climatic influences on the biological structure in lakes, rivers and shelf seas and specifically focus on the abundance and composition of marine and freshwater fish communities and the linkage to fisheries
  • Investigate and describe how climate related changes in runoff and land use will affect the transport, turnover, retention and sedimentation of nutrients and fine grained material from land to sea
  • Analyze the interaction between living organisms and the physical environment
  • Develop models with predictive capabilities relating the transport of nutrients and sediments and water column structure with respect to changes in the local and regional climate
  • Develop both empirical and dynamic models describing the biological and sedimentological consequences of changes in the water column stability of stratified lakes and shelf seas
  • Assess the possible consequences of future climate induced changes for Danish aquatic ecosystems with regard to management strategies

The research strategy builds on three key elements:

  • Development of empirical relationships from historical records/observations, palaeolimnological data and climate/weather time-series
  • Targeting of key ecological processes influenced by climate through observations and experiments
  • Development of coupled climate ecosystem models generated by linking and improving existing climate, marine and limnological models to test hypotheses and provide operational prognoses.

More information on the objectives, research strategy, methodology and hypotheses of the CONWOY project can be found in the final application.

Top of page

Workpackages

The Conwoy project has been divided into six scientific workpackages and one managerial workpackage. The workpackages are listed below and a graphical presentation of the workpackages and the partners activities are evaluated in this figure Workpackages.pdf. Click on each specific workpackage below for more information.

WP 1: Establishing empirical relationships between climate and long-term dynamics of aquatic ecosystems

WP 2: Hind- and forecast of weather induced changes in hydrology, sediment and nutrient transfer in the interconnected river, lakes and estaurine systems

WP 3: Coupling between physical forcing and ecology

WP 4: Influence of temperature and nutrients on biological structures and processes: an experimental approach

WP 5: Prognoses and simulations of aquatic ecosystems in a climate change perspective. Updated October 13, 2003

WP 6: A national conference. The ecological consequences of weather and climate changes for freshwater and marine ecosystems: Managerial and environmental policy perspectives

Managerial Workpackages

Top of page

Funding

This Center of Excellence has for the period 1 June 2002 to 31 May 2006 been granted 23.6 mill DKK by “Forskningsforum” a part of the Danish Research Agency. All negotiations concerning the budget have been undertaken with the Danish Natural Science Research Council.

Top of page

Project management

Project co-ordinator: Professor Morten Søndergaard

Steering Committee:

To advise the Steering Committee on scientific issues an External Board has been appointed:

Professor Hans von Storch
Institute for Coastal Research
GKSS, Geesthacht,
Germany
storch@gkss.de

Dr. Mike R. Heath
Fisheries Research Services Marine Laboratory
Victoria Road
Aberdeen AB11 9DB
Scotland
heathmr@marlab.ac.uk

Professor Wilhelm Granéli
Ecology Building
Limnology
S-223 62 Lund
Sweden
e-mail Wilhelm.Graneli@limnol.lu.se

Dr. Job Baretta
National Institute for Coastal and Marine Management/RIKZ
Kortenaerkade 1 PO Box 20907 2500 EX
Den Haag
The Netherlands
j.w.baretta@rikz.rws.minvenw.nl

Professor David Paterson
Gatty Marine Laboratory
School of Biology
University of St Andrews
St Andrews Fife KY16 8LB
U.K.
e-mail:dp1@st-and.ac.uk

Top of page